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Shiv Nadar University

The Covid pandemic has resulted in an economic shock. However, not all sectors are affected uniformly. We study two channels on the supply side through which the shock is amplified differentially across industries. First, we look at the dependence on global value chain (GVC), measured as share of imports in total inputs, which measures an industry’s integration with the GVC. A disruption in GVC will amplify the shock more for a higher value of the import share in inputs. Second, we construct a network of industries based on inputs used and calculated a dependency score for each industry. Higher the dependency score, greater is the chance for disruption. We find that both these factors are correlated with output share of the industries, implying amplification and a significant impact. Using IIP data for the months post the onset of pandemic, we find that disruption is higher in industries with higher import share and higher dependency score. Finally, we create a vulnerability index using these two variables. Industries with higher VI score are likely to face greater challenges in the recovery process. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar; individual chapters, the contributors.

World University root node

Economics

(SoHSS) School of Humanities and Social Sciences

The Covid-19 Pandemic, India and the World: Economic and Social Policy Perspectives

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN INDIA: Networks and trade dependence

In this paper we quantitatively analyze the real and nominal frictions which have shaped up economic fluctuations in the past two decades for the Indian economy. Our results provide guidelines for building future structural models to replicate its business cycle properties, for both real and monetary variables. We use the Monetary Business Cycle Accounting framework (Sustek in Rev Econ Dyn 14(4):592–612, 2011; Chari et al. in Econometrica 75(3):781–836, 2007), and quarterly data from 1999–2017, which is a first for the Indian economy. We find that the distortions in efficiency and investment wedges capture most of the fluctuations in output, investment and hours worked. Up to half of consumption dynamics however are accounted for by the labor wedge. We also find that investment frictions have decreased but labor market frictions have increased over time, indicating reforms in financial sector making an impact and the need for reforms in labor markets. Taylor’s Rule wedge matches up to 50% of inflation, and interest rate is well accounted by the asset market wedge. © 2021, The Indian Econometric Society.

Journal of Quantitative Economics

Monetary Business Cycle Accounting Analysis of Indian Economy

A road map for resuming limited economic activities with necessary precautions in certain industries that can lessen economic pain, given the prevailing situation, has been drawn up in this paper. It identifies industries and districts that can start functioning in a limited manner, informed by geographical, occupational, and other industry-specific data. © 2020 Economic and Political Weekly. All rights reserved.