Adopting the framework of a multicomponent, distributed outsourced project in information technology research and development, the present paper introduces a quantitative model of the asymptotic stability of development output in the outsourced project components. Empirical production functions are employed to formulate stochastic distributions of the parameters in the model Observational data from actual industrial projects are compared with prediction results from Monte Carlo simulations of the underlying project dynamics to determine the span of the linear regime of development progress. Simulation-based analysis further provides domain maps of parameter stability. These are valuable tools for project managers and management practitioners to control and sustain the long-term evolution of the project. The points of departure from linearity as well as some of their probable causes are also indicated and discussed. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.